Wednesday, October 10, 2012

2012 Presidential Prediction

Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, sabermetrician, psephologist, and writer. In 2007, writing under the pseudonym "Poblano", Silver began to publish analyses and predictions related to the 2008 United States presidential election. The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions—he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by 1%. He also correctly predicted the winner of all 35 Senate races that year.

In other words, Nate Silver's predictions are by far the most accurate and reliable. Here's the current prediction:

Because of Obummer's piss-poor performance last week two swing states have already gone red (FL and NC). NC has a 90% chance of going red this year (not surprising,) and FL 58%. But just days before the debate FL was 50/50 and NC was only around 60% Romney-leaning. FL could still go blue. Romney also increased in the other swing states (which are the only states that matter,) +3 points in Ohio, which will most likely be the state that decides this election (recall the 2004 election.) However... Even if current projections hold up, Obama would still win 303 to 235. Even without Ohio, he'd still win 285 to 253. For Romney to win he has to win Ohio AND another swing state worth 16 or more points: Michigan and Pennsylvania. Both of which are over 95% certain to go blue. I don't foresee how Romney could possibly win either, even if Obama fucks up in every debate.

Tl;dr: Obama fucked up hard and lessened his chances of winning moderately... but he'll still most likely win. Also, your vote means nothing and it doesn't matter who wins. You can't change the system. Take comfort in knowing that nothing will change, despite what happens in November. Remember, you can't change the system.

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